Tennis · Vienna · Austria · hard
Khachanov K. vs Alcaraz C.
Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Alcaraz C. a 78% chance on hard courts. That rests on a ranking of No. 3 against No. 24, 8 wins from the last 10 matches on hard courts to 6 and a 6-0 head-to-head lead. Bookmakers give Alcaraz C. about 79% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view.
Key facts
- They last met on 19 Feb 2026, when Alcaraz C. won 2-1.
Austria•ATP•Vienna•hard
Tuesday, 27 October 2026 at 17:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Khachanov K.Alcaraz C.
22%
78%
Khachanov K. · all surfaces (latest first)
L4d
W5d
W7d
L14d
W16d
W18d
L23d
W25d
W27d
L46d
On hard6–4 · 60%· won 1+ set 7/10
L4d
W5d
W7d
L14d
W16d
W18d
L23d
W25d
W27d
L46d
Alcaraz C. · all surfaces (latest first)
L15d
W17d
W21d
W22d
W23d
W24d
W26d
W31d
L48d
W51d
On hard7–2 · 78%· won 1+ set 8/9
L15d
W17d
W21d
W22d
W23d
W24d
W26d
W31d
L48d
W51d
Recent form
Khachanov K. · all surfacesAlcaraz C. · all surfaces
109
6/107/9
4/102/9
60%78%
4/104/9
3/101/9
7/108/9
4/105/9
13 / 1117 / 8
+2+9
Limited sample — Alcaraz C. has 9 matches on record.
On hard (this match's surface)
Khachanov K. · last 10 on hardAlcaraz C. · last 9 on hard
109
6/107/9
4/102/9
60%78%
4/104/9
3/101/9
7/108/9
4/105/9
13 / 1117 / 8
+2+9
Head-to-head
0/66/6
04
6 meetings · 3 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 6.3%
Khachanov K.
4.50▼
Implied 21%
Edge +1.1%
Alcaraz C.
1.19▲
Implied 79%
Edge -1.1%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Khachanov K.
22%
Alcaraz C.
78%
high confidenceData 95%hard2 H2H used
◀ Khachanov K.Why the model leansAlcaraz C. ▶
Ranking
-0.87
Surface
0.00
Form
-0.14
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Khachanov K. Form
Khachanov K.
Alcaraz C. Form
Alcaraz C.
Head-to-Head
Last 10
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