PSG vs Lyon

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. PSG have 9/10 games above 2.5 goals and Lyon 8/10. PSG beat Barcelona 4-2, Manchester City 4-2 and Strasbourg 3-1; Lyon lost Hoffenheim 0-3 and beat Nice 2-1 and Crystal Palace 3-2. The last seven direct meetings exceeded 2.5; the model is 81% with 3.67 expected total goals. Main risk: Lyon recently drew Paris FC 0-0 and conceded only five in seven league games. PSG also won only 1-0 at Brest; lineup uncertainty and non-independent recent/model inputs justify a reduction below the displayed model. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.