CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. All 20 inspected recent games reached at least two total goals. CSKA drew Nordsjaelland 2-2, beat CSKA 1948 3-2 and scored twice at Nesebar; Ludogorets beat Arda and Cherno More 5-0. They rank second and third, with league scoring totals 27:9 and 21:7; the model total is 3.50. Main risk: Four of the last six direct meetings finished 1-0 or 0-0. This strong head-to-head counter-signal and the high-stakes top-of-table context sharply reduce the estimate despite current scoring form. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.