AEK Larnaca vs Omonia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. AEK have 8/10 recent games with at least two goals and Omonia 6/10, including all of Omonia's last five. AEK drew 1-1 at Aris and beat Apollon 3-0; Omonia beat Celje and Karmiotissa 3-0. Five of the latest six meetings reached two goals. The model total is 3.28 expected goals. Main risk: Omonia have three scoreless games in the ten-game sample, both sides sit near the top with good league defenses, and the model is not independently calibrated. No current exact-market odds verified; price value is unconfirmed.