Fearnley J. vs Carreno-Busta P.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Carreno-Busta won a set in 5/6 completed recent hard matches, including wins over Tabilo, Navone and Mannarino and a set against Auger-Aliassime. His only straight-set loss was to Medvedev. Fearnley lost two of his latest three 0-2, to Chidekh and Dzumhur; many of his six wins came against lower-ranked Challenger opponents. Main risk: Fearnley has six straight-set wins in eight and the match model favors him 58%. Carreno-Busta has not played a listed completed match since October 12. Rankings 74 versus 87 and opponent quality support a modest one-set estimate, with no H2H available. No current exact win-a-set price is verified; odds are omitted.