Livingston vs Arbroath

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Since 1 September, this exact market landed in 5/7 Livingston games and 6/7 Arbroath games, including 3/4 for the hosts at home and 3/4 for the visitors away. Livingston's recent home games include 1-2, 1-2 and 2-2; Arbroath conceded two at Inverness, three at Partick and four at Raith. Main risk: Livingston just drew 0-0 and Arbroath beat them 1-0 in August. Both teams also lost 1-0 to Stenhousemuir, so neither a higher total nor a team-total over is forced. No current exact-market decimal price is verified; odds are omitted and no proven price edge is claimed.