Ceuta vs Oviedo

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. The line landed in 6/6 Ceuta and 5/6 Oviedo completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 4/4 and 3/3. Ceuta lost 1-2 to Sabadell and drew 1-1 at Castellon; Oviedo beat Eibar 3-1 and won 3-0 at Valladolid. All recent Ceuta home and Oviedo away matches reached two goals. Model total expected goals 2.93 is secondary support. Main risk: Oviedo drew 0-0 with Burgos CF and had 1-0 or 0-1 results just outside the window; no H2H evidence is supplied. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.