Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. The line landed in 4/5 Newcastle and 7/8 Aston Villa completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 4/5. Newcastle conceded four at Coventry and Leeds; Aston Villa scored three away at Tottenham, Coventry and Club Brugge KV. February H2H ended 1-3. Model total expected goals 3.60 is secondary support. Main risk: Villa drew 0-0 at Hull and January H2H ended 0-2; the European 6-0 outlier and short turnaround are downweighted, with only two recent Newcastle home games. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.