Medvedev D. vs Paul T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Medvedev won all 9 completed hard-court BO3 matches in the last 30 days, including straight-set wins over Cerundolo (rank 20), Rublev (23) and Tsitsipas (43). He won the supplied 2023-25 hard H2Hs against Paul, and rank 5 versus 17 plus the high-quality model support a set. Main risk: Paul won his latest three current matches in straight sets, including Vacherot (14), conceded a set in only 1/4 and won their clay H2H; his current comparable sample is modest.