Sparta Prague vs Lillestrom

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. The line landed in 7/7 Sparta Prague and 7/7 Lillestrom completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 3/3 and 4/4. Sparta scored twice against FK Pardubice and Jablonec and four at Ararat-Armenia; Lillestrom conceded at least twice against Molde, Viking and Torreense. The low total remains supported after downweighting cup blowouts. Model total expected goals 3.58 is secondary support. Main risk: Sparta recent home wins against Pardubice and Jablonec were exactly 2-0, so one missed goal matters; both clubs have lower-tier cup opponents in the sample, Lillestrom drew 0-0 at Egnatia in August, and no H2H is available. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.