Benfica vs Celtic

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Benfica scored at least twice in 6/7 completed matches in the last 45 days and 3/3 recent home matches in the same 45-day window. Celtic conceded at least twice in 2/7 recent matches and 1/4 recent away matches in the same 45-day window. Benfica scored at least twice in six of seven recent games and all three recent home matches, including 2-0 against Vitoria Guimaraes and 3-1 against Gil Vicente. They also scored twice at AC Milan; Celtic conceded three against Rangers and Ferencvaros. The model home expected goals 2.69 is secondary support. Main risk: Celtic won three of four recent away games and kept two clean sheets, including 2-0 at Motherwell; Benfica scored only once at FC Porto and the H2Hs are from 2012 or earlier, so the model mismatch is discounted. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.