Benfica vs Celtic

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Benfica favourites at 84% (Celtic 5%, draw 11%). That rests on expected goals of 2.69 to 0.47 and 9 wins in Benfica's last 10 matches to 6 for Celtic. It put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 34%. Benfica won 4-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 20 Nov 2012, when Benfica won 2-1.