Gent vs Aarhus

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. The line landed in 4/5 Gent and 7/7 Aarhus completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 1/2 and 3/3. Gent scored at least twice against Waregem, St. Liege and Cercle Brugge KSV; all seven recent Aarhus matches reached two goals, including 2-2 against Horsens and Silkeborg. This lower total has clearer support than a winner or BTTS. Model total expected goals 2.96 is secondary support. Main risk: Gent conceded only twice in five recent games and beat Leuven 1-0; Aarhus scoring is inflated by a 6-1 cup mismatch against Skjold, the home sample is only two, and there is no H2H. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.