QPR vs Derby

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. The line landed in 5/6 QPR and 6/6 Derby completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/3 and 3/3. QPR drew 1-1 with West Ham and West Brom and 0-0 with Charlton; Derby have scored only five goals in their recent six games. This is stronger than the model home-win call given QPR drew four in succession. Model total expected goals 2.27 is secondary support. Main risk: QPR drew 2-2 with Preston and the last meeting was 2-3; the recent venue sample is only three per side. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.