Arsenal vs Lille

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. The line landed in 6/7 Arsenal and 5/6 Lille completed matches in the last 45 days; recent home/away samples in the same 45-day window were 2/2 and 2/2. Arsenal two recent home games both finished 2-1, against Chelsea and Leeds; Lille recent away games were 1-2 Nice and 1-0 Toulouse. No H2H is supplied, and Lille Waregem match is downweighted. Model total expected goals 2.69 is secondary support. Main risk: Arsenal won 4-2 at Ipswich and Lille lost 2-3 against Betis; only two recent relevant-venue matches per team, so the estimate is below the empirical rate. No verified current price for this exact market; odds omitted.