Arbroath vs Morton

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. The line landed in 5/6 Arbroath and 5/6 Morton completed matches in the last 45 days; supplied home/away samples were 5/5 and 4/4. Arbroath beat Queens Park 2-1 and drew Dunfermline 1-1; Morton lost 2-0 at Inverness and drew Ayr 1-1. Model total expected goals 2.08 is secondary support. Main risk: Arbroath lost 4-0 at Raith and Morton lost 1-4 to Livingston; fragile defenses could produce another four-goal game despite the latest six H2Hs staying under. No verified current price for this exact total; odds omitted.