Ayr vs Dunfermline

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. The line landed in 5/6 Ayr and 4/5 Dunfermline completed matches in the last 45 days; supplied home/away samples were 3/4 and 5/5. Ayr beat Livingston 2-1 and lost 0-1 to Stenhousemuir; Dunfermline won 1-0 at Morton and drew Arbroath 1-1. Model total expected goals 1.99 is secondary support. Main risk: Dunfermline latest game was a 1-4 loss to Aberdeen and Ayr lost 1-3 to Inverness; the latest H2H was 1-1 but a prior one had five goals. No verified current price for this exact total; odds omitted.