Ugo Carabelli C. vs Simakin I.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Simakin has won all 10 recent completed hard-court matches, most recently 2-0 over Te and 2-1 over Pavlovic (207). Ugo Carabelli lost four of five comparable matches 0-2, including his latest against Hijikata (85) and Cina (147). Main risk: Simakin's wins came against ranks 207-849, a substantial step below Ugo Carabelli's rank 77; the model is low quality with rank/form divergence, and no H2H is available. Comparable samples use completed best-of-three results on this surface within 75 days; model is secondary and no exact current price is verified.