Antibes vs Roanne

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Roanne won three of four supplied September-October games, beating Nanterre 93-83, Boulazac 81-79 away and Lyon-Villeurbanne 73-71. Antibes split four current games and most recently lost 74-85 to ASA; its wins were over Nantes and La Ravoire-Challes. Roanne won the three latest H2Hs, including 92-68 at Antibes in April, used as secondary support. Main risk: Roanne lost 59-81 to Paris, two current wins were by only two points and there is just one current away result. Antibes won its only current listed home game. Cup context and the small samples limit confidence; the model's 69% is supporting context, not the basis of the estimate.