Dougaz A. vs Cina F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Dougaz won eight of ten supplied comparable hard matches, including wins over Sonego and Jacquet. Cina lost four of nine without a set, including defeats to Erel, Muller and Basilashvili. Comparable samples use completed hard results from July 23 onward; model output is secondary. Main risk: Dougaz lost 0-2 to Komagata, ranked 1667, and many of his wins came against low-ranked opponents. Cina beat Ugo Carabelli and both played three sets yesterday; the model has low quality and no H2H is supplied.