Stefanini L. vs Monnet C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Stefanini took sets in seven of ten supplied comparable hard matches, beating Yastremska and Brengle and taking a set from Jeanjean. She beat Buyukakcay in three sets, while Monnet lost to the same opponent in three. Comparable samples use completed hard results from July 23 onward; model output is secondary. Main risk: Monnet beat Crawley 2-0 and won their older clay H2H 2-0. Stefanini had setless defeats to Podoroska, Paolini and Bouzkova; the clay H2H and one common opponent do not establish the result alone.