Samrej K. vs Aguiard E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Samrej won seven of ten supplied comparable hard matches, including 2-0 over Aguiard on September 4 and wins over Tomic and Tseng. Aguiard lost five of ten without a set, including recent losses to Atmane and Peliwo. Comparable samples use completed hard results from July 23 onward; model output is secondary. Main risk: Samrej lost his latest hard match 0-2 to Shimizu and has no supplied hard result after September 9. He beat Shevchenko in three sets on September 19 but lost 0-2 to Skatov the day before; both Davis Cup surfaces are unspecified. That activity gap and modest opposition sharply limit confidence.