Shi H. vs Zarazua R.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Shi took sets in nine of ten comparable hard-court matches and won seven, including current wins over Yang and Yuan and a win over Kalieva. She took a set from Zheng, ranked 54, on 1 October. Counts describe supplied recent-form rows, not an exhaustive period record: completed hard best-of-three results from 23 July to 6 October, excluding incomplete scores and nonstandard formats. Main risk: Zarazua is higher ranked, beat Bondar recently and faced stronger opposition in several defeats, including Sabalenka and Fernandez. Many Shi wins came against lower-ranked or unranked opponents; she lost 0-2 to Cengiz. No H2H is supplied and model quality is low.