Meligeni Alves F. vs Varillas J. P.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Varillas won six of nine comparable clay matches, including wins over Passaro and Clarke, and won four of five supplied clay H2Hs against Meligeni Alves. The latest H2H in January 2026 ended 2-0 for Varillas. Counts describe supplied recent-form rows, not an exhaustive period record: completed clay best-of-three results from 23 July to 6 October, excluding incomplete scores and nonstandard formats. Main risk: Meligeni Alves won eight of ten comparable matches and beat Varillas 2-0 in February 2025. Varillas lost 0-2 to Aguilar Cardozo, Seyboth Wild and Dodig. Much of Meligeni Alves's winning sample is from July-August; the low-quality model favours him, so the older H2Hs are supporting evidence only.