Maestrelli F. vs Tarvet O.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Tarvet took sets in all ten comparable hard-court matches and won nine. His current 2-0 wins over Dedura and Erhard on 4-5 October add fresh evidence to August wins over Pucinelli de Almeida, Poullain and Matusevich. Counts describe supplied recent-form rows, not an exhaustive period record: completed hard best-of-three results from 23 July to 6 October, excluding incomplete scores and nonstandard formats. Main risk: Maestrelli is higher ranked, took sets in seven of ten comparable matches and beat Ficovich and Ayeni. Much of Tarvet's sample is from August, while Maestrelli last appears on 21 September. No H2H is supplied and model quality is low.