Virtus Bologna vs Maxima Roma

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Virtus are 6-3 in September-October, including 90-69 at Varese and 96-94 against Olympiacos, and beat Maxima Roma 97-80 at home on September 16. Roma are 1-3, also losing to Hapoel Tel Aviv and Basket Napoli. The recent direct meeting and broader current results support the estimate; the model's 70% is secondary with a low quality score. Main risk: Roma just won 89-55 against Cluj-Napoca, their Hapoel defeat was only two points, and Virtus carry a busy schedule after October 1.