Hiroshima D. vs Kobe

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Hiroshima won all four September-October games, including 89-61 and 100-87 at Saga and 96-73 at home against Kobe on October 2. Kobe are 2-4 in August-October, with defeats to Osaka, Levanga Hokkaido and Chiba as well. Consistent current margins and the same-venue meeting support the estimate above the model's 71%; decade-old H2Hs are not treated as current evidence. Main risk: Kobe beat Osaka and Brave Thunders in September, and four Hiroshima games are a limited sample for a repeat matchup.