Aomori vs Iwate

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Iwate won their latest three games, beating Yamagata 86-75 and 85-73 before winning 102-66 at Aomori on October 3. Aomori are 1-3 in September-October and also lost 80-89 to Yamagata. The common opponent and current direct result support the estimate; the model's matching 77% is secondary. Main risk: Iwate lost 74-99 at Sendai earlier in September, Aomori beat Ehime by one point, and this is a next-day rematch with four current results per team.