Iraklis vs Olympiacos

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Olympiacos won 8 of their latest 10 September-October games, including wins over Fenerbahce, PAOK and Zalgiris, and 106-89 at Baskonia. Iraklis won three September games against AEK Larnaca, Balkan and Mykonos. The stronger current opponent set and February's 95-70 win at Iraklis support the estimate. The model's 66% is only secondary context: its Iraklis form aggregate includes seven March-April losses. Main risk: Iraklis are unbeaten in the current sample and have home advantage; Olympiacos just lost 94-96 at Virtus and have a busy schedule.