Zalgiris Kaunas vs Lietkabelis

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Zalgiris are 6-3 in September-October, with wins of 93-69 at Neptunas, 98-77 at Gargzdai and 101-82 against Siauliai. Lietkabelis lost 77-86 at Siauliai and won their other three current games by 2, 6 and 3 points. Zalgiris won the latest six H2Hs, but current margins and the home venue lead the estimate, below the model's 87%. Main risk: Zalgiris lost their latest two games to Olympiacos and Paris, while Lietkabelis have won their latest two; recent European travel and rotation add uncertainty.