Kagawa Five Arrows vs Fukuoka

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Fukuoka won 105-82 at Kagawa on October 3 and are 2-1 in their three current games, also winning 83-69 at Kagoshima Rebnise. Kagawa lost all four September-October games by 15, 33, 17 and 23 points. The current away results support the estimate below the model's 78%; older H2Hs are given little weight. Main risk: Fukuoka lost their other Kagoshima game 76-84, only three current results are available, and a next-day rematch can change with shooting and rotation.