Ovcharenko O. vs Angelini L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Ovcharenko took sets in eight of nine comparable clay matches and won six, including wins over Martin Tiffon, Strombachs and Ribero. Angelini lost four of ten comparable matches without a set. Comparable counts use supplied completed clay best-of-three results from 21 July to 4 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Ovcharenko just lost 1-2 to Basile and previously lost 0-2 to Kravchenko. Angelini is slightly higher ranked, beat Johns recently and took a set from Cadenasso in his latest match. No H2H is supplied and much of both samples comes from lower-level events.