Hurkacz H. vs Khachanov K.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Hurkacz won seven of eight comparable hard-court best-of-three matches, including current wins over Gea, Tien and Shapovalov. He also beat Harris and Damm; only Davidovich Fokina beat him without conceding a set. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 21 July to 4 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Khachanov just beat Molcan and Auger-Aliassime 2-0, is higher ranked, and won their old 2019 H2H 2-0. Only four current comparable Khachanov matches are supplied. Hurkacz needed three sets in several recent wins, creating workload and serving variance; best-of-five results are excluded.