Muchova K. vs Samsonova L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Samsonova took sets in nine of ten comparable hard-court matches, including current victory over Fruhvirtova and wins over Kostyuk, Day and Putintseva. She also took sets from Gauff and Rybakina. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 21 July to 4 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Muchova is higher ranked and won three of her four comparable matches, including 2-0 over Boulter on 2 October. Muchova won both old 2019 H2Hs. Samsonova lost 0-2 to Stearns, and the small Muchova sample limits the comparison.