Henning P. vs Boogaard T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Henning took sets in eight of ten comparable hard-court matches and won seven, including wins over Bertrand and Added. Boogaard lost four of seven comparable matches without a set, including his latest two to Barroso Campos and Renard. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 21 July to 4 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Henning also lost his latest two matches 0-2, to Schoolkate and Deckers. Boogaard won three comparable matches; his two ranked winning opponents were ranked 1429 and 2083, while Nyqvist has no supplied rank. No H2H is supplied, and Henning's recent defeats limit confidence.