Medvedev D. vs Cerundolo F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Medvedev won all six comparable hard-court best-of-three matches, most recently 2-0 over Struff on 3 October. That run also includes straight-set wins over Carreno-Busta, Rublev and Safiullin. Comparable counts use supplied completed hard best-of-three results from 21 July to 4 October, excluding incomplete scores. Main risk: Cerundolo just beat Mensik 2-0 and Van De Zandschulp 2-1, and beat Medvedev 2-1 in their March hard-court H2H. The six-match Medvedev sample is modest and his recent workload is busy. Best-of-five results are excluded from the counts.