Nishikori K. vs Tiafoe F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Tiafoe took a set in all four supplied recent completed hard-court best-of-three matches, including straight-set wins over Nakashima, Musetti and Auger-Aliassime in August. His six supplied US Open matches also all included a set, used as broader form context rather than best-of-three trials. Nishikori lost three of eight comparable matches 0-2. Main risk: Nishikori won their only supplied H2H in 2018 and beat Ofner and Comesana in August. Tiafoe's comparable sample is only four matches and his latest result is from 12 September, while Nishikori's is from 28 August.