Germany vs Serbia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Nine of each team's last ten matches reached two goals. Serbia's six 2026 results in the sample all cleared the line, including September's 1-2 losses against both Netherlands and Greece. Germany drew 1-1 in Netherlands and their June results included 2-1 against Ivory Coast and a 1-2 loss to Ecuador. Main risk: Germany's latest match was a 0-1 loss to Greece and Serbia have an older 0-1 loss to Albania. Germany's 7-1 against Curacao is an opponent mismatch, not the basis of this estimate; H2Hs are stale.