Germany vs Serbia

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Germany favourites at 70% (Serbia 14%, draw 16%). That rests on expected goals of 2.42 to 0.96 and 6 wins in Germany's last 10 matches to 3 for Serbia. It put over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams scoring at 62%. Germany won 2-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Serbia have lost 4 matches in a row.
• They last met on 20 Mar 2019, when it finished 1-1.