Hurkacz H. vs Shapovalov D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Hurkacz H. won a set in 8 of 8 completed hard-court best-of-three matches in the supplied recent history (7 wins). Hurkacz won all three current rounds, beating Harris and Shevchenko 2-0 and Damm 2-1. His only loss in the comparable sample was 1-2 to Paul. Main risk: Shapovalov has won three current rounds too, including straight-set wins over Kopriva and Griekspoor, and took Mannarino in three sets. The rankings are close; older head-to-heads include best-of-five matches and are not treated as comparable set-rate evidence.