Mannarino A. vs Shapovalov D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Shapovalov took a set in five of six completed hard-court best-of-three matches, winning four. He beat Kopriva and Griekspoor 2-0 this week and beat Mannarino 2-0 on August 13. Three best-of-five matches and the incomplete Svajda result are excluded from the rate. Main risk: Mannarino has just beaten Tabilo and Shang 2-0. Shapovalov's comparable sample is only six matches and includes a straight-set loss to Gea; the recent head-to-head cannot establish the outcome alone.