St. Paul vs Louisville Bats

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. St. Paul are 7-3 and have won nine of the last ten meetings with Louisville, sweeping the current series 4-1, 5-4, 4-1 and 15-5; Louisville are 2-8 conceding 6.5 runs per game. Main risk: three of those four wins were by three runs or fewer, so the gap is smaller than the record suggests and single games remain volatile.