Sabalenka A. vs Alexandrova E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Sabalenka is 10-0 in her last ten hard-court matches, has dropped no sets in Toronto so far, and leads the head-to-head 6-3; Alexandrova is 4-5 on hard. Main risk: Alexandrova has beaten Sabalenka three times including Doha in 2025, so the matchup is less lopsided than the surface form suggests.