Trevisan M. vs Stusek J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Trevisan M. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 66% outright forecast converts to a conservative 85% win-a-set estimate, the current 70% no-vig outright market implies about 87% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.