Bonelli E. vs Kotliar Y.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Kotliar Y. won a set in 7/9 (78%) recent completed clay matches; the medium-quality match model's 73% outright forecast converts to a conservative 88% win-a-set estimate, the current 79% no-vig outright market implies about 91% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/9 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.