Pieri T. vs Spiteri D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Spiteri D. won a set in 7/9 (78%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 47% outright forecast converts to a conservative 73% win-a-set estimate, the current 46% no-vig outright market implies about 72% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/9 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.