Samrej K. vs Simakin I.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 85%. Simakin I. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 66% outright forecast converts to a conservative 85% win-a-set estimate, the current 72% no-vig outright market implies about 88% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.