Bublik A. vs Paul T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Paul T. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 57% outright forecast converts to a conservative 79% win-a-set estimate, the current 61% no-vig outright market implies about 82% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 2/2. Main risk: 2/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.