Pegula J. vs Fernandez L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 89%. Pegula J. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 80% outright forecast converts to a conservative 92% win-a-set estimate, the current 82% no-vig outright market implies about 93% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 2/2. Main risk: 2/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.