West Ham vs Derby

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made West Ham favourites at 60% (Derby 21%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 2.13 to 1.18, 4 wins in West Ham's last 10 matches to 2 for Derby and 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 66%. West Ham won 3-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 30 Jan 2023, when West Ham won 2-0.